CWA's support of AT&T/DIRECTV merger based on fallacious logic

CWA says AT&T-DIRECTV merger will advance broadband buildout, help consumers, Workers | Speed Matters - Internet Speed Test: The AT&T/DIRECTV merger will improve the economics for AT&T’s investment in high-speed broadband, the critical infrastructure for the 21st century, CWA said. Video is the major driver of broadband expansion, producing the revenue stream to support investment in high-speed networks. As a stronger video competitor, a merged AT&T/DIRECTV will have the economic incentives to increase investment in the high-capacity networks that are so essential to drive economic growth, jobs, and the social benefits enabled by high-speed digital technology.

So asserts the Communications Workers of America in comments filed with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission in support of AT&T's acquisition of DIRECTV.

The problem is the logic does not hold up. AT&T's deriving additional revenues from DIRECTV video services does not necessarily mean those additional funds will be invested in landline Internet infrastructure.

And why should that be the case, AT&T will likely ask itself once the deal goes through, when satellite does the job of delivering video content to residential premises? Instead, any video revenue bump from the deal will likely be plowed into earnings and dividends, not CAPex.

AT&T already selling DirecTV

AT&T isn't waiting for regulatory approval of its recently announced acquisition of DirecTV to start bulking up the DirecTV subscriber base in order to gain greater bargaining power with television programming wholesalers -- the business rationale for the deal.

AT&T has launched a direct mail campaign pitching DirecTV as "Digital TV from AT&T," targeted at redlined portions of its service territory where it has no landline Internet infrastructure. Reviewing the fine print on the reverse of the direct mail piece reveals the "Digital TV from AT&T" is in fact DirecTV. The direct mail promo also pitches residential POTS (plain old telephone service).

Consumers have been able to get POTS and satellite TV for decades. Without an offer of a new and/or compelling value, the direct mail piece isn't likely to be appealing or gain many new DirecTV subscribers for AT&T. Instead, it's likely to end up in the waste can or junk mail recycling.

Dish Network Offers To Buy Sprint In $25.5 Billion Deal

Dish Network Offers To Buy Sprint In $25.5 Billion Deal: For years, Dish has been able to grow rapidly by luring cable TV subscribers with better deals. But its subscriber numbers have been flat for the past three years. Unlike TV cables, satellite dishes aren't good conduits for Internet access. That means that Dish and larger rival DirecTV have been left behind in the rush to connect homes to broadband, while cable has been able to retain customers by offering TV, Internet and phone bundles

Nor are mobile wireless networks good "conduits" for premises Internet access.  This is a move of desperation on the part of Dish Network.  The trend is toward high capacity, low latency premises Internet service delivered via cable or optimally, fiber optic infrastructure.  Both the satellite TV providers and the dedicated satellite Internet providers such as HughesNet are caught on the wrong side of the trend and face a limited future.

Emergence of Internet TV reinforces end of “broadband” era

The emergence of the Internet ready or “smart” TV marks the graduation of the Internet to a full featured, multiple service telecommunications service. It also marks the beginning of the end of siloed, single purpose video programming providers such as cable TV and satellite. Now that HD video content of all varieties is available via the Internet, the medium is the message in the words of mass communications theorist Marshall McLuhan and the medium is the Internet.

The Internet or “smart” TV also marks the end of the “broadband” Internet era, where the Internet was mostly used for viewing web pages and email — and later Voice Over Internet Protocol (VOIP). It’s notable that TV manufacturers aren’t marketing the latest sets as “broadband” TVs. That reinforces a point I made in December 2010 when I declared distinguishing “broadband” from dialup “narrowband” was growing increasingly irrelevant since dialup was becoming technologically obsolete. Consumers either have functional Internet infrastructure connected to their premises, or they don’t. And if that infrastructure can’t deliver HD video while simultaneously allowing them to browse the web, download email and make a voice call, they’re effectively disconnected from the Internet.

Clearwire in WiMAX alliance with satellite TV providers

This deal looks at bit sketchy at first glance. On one hand, it makes some sense inasmuch as many satellite TV subscribers live in areas where over the air TV broadcast reception is poor and there's no wireline broadband infrastructure from the telco/cable duopoly.

Many of these folks would likely prefer a fixed terrestrial wireless option that provides broadband faster and cheaper than satellite ISPs such as WildBlue and HughesNet.

On the other hand, however, there are few if any proven WiMAX deployments in these areas that have an established track record. I asked Clearwire how its service would overcome rugged terrain and tall trees which are often found in areas that lack wireline broadband. Tellingly, the company demurred, declining to respond to the inquiry.