AT&T is likely to upgrade only a fraction of its residential wireline plant to deliver premises Internet to residences that it doesn't currently provide Internet service, according to an analysis by George Notter of Jefferies & Company discussed in this Telecompetitor article. The telco's strategy is stated to be unveiled next month.
Notter's analysis predicts AT&T will upgrade only about 15 percent of its wireline plant to support its hybrid fiber/copper U-Verse triple play offering. Some of the remaining premises may be offered AT&T's version of Verizon's LTE-based HomeFusion product, according to Notter.
Sunday, October 21, 2012
Sunday, October 14, 2012
DSL turbocharging schemes remain just that
DSL Renaissance Underway?: Zero Touch VectoringThese stories continue to appear year after year as vendors hope telcos will adopt their latest sooper dooper DSL turbocharging scheme. Problem is while telcos aren't investing FTTH CAPex, they aren't investing CAPex or OPex in their aging legacy copper cable plants either and are instead concentrating on the mobile wireless space where more rapid ROIs are to be had.
Vectoring technology is a relatively new innovation for DSL which basically is a noise cancelling technology which reduces cross talk in copper pairs, allowing DSL to achieve much faster bandwidth throughput as a result. Some vendors are claiming they can squeeze 100 Mbps out of VDSL2 vectoring, albeit at rather short distances. It’s very much a FTTN technology, where VDSL2 connects to the home from a fiber fed cabinet.
And the above reference to "Zero Touch" for many telco customers has an entirely different meaning: DSL won't touch their premises because the DSL signal can't propagate far enough over old copper to reach them. Zero Touch=Zero Service.
Friday, October 12, 2012
Wipro Launches Prepaid Broadband Solution for US Cable Market - Yahoo! Finance
Wipro Launches Prepaid Broadband Solution for US Cable Market - Yahoo! Finance
I'm not so sure that adopting a pre-paid pricing scheme like that of the personal wireless market will provide sufficient incentive and ARPU for cable companies to build out their infrastructures to capture new customers. But from a consumer perspective, it's far better than the current practice of asking would-be customers to come up with $65,000 per mile (with no equity in return) to build out to their neighborhoods under so-called "self help" provisions of cable franchise agreements.
I'm not so sure that adopting a pre-paid pricing scheme like that of the personal wireless market will provide sufficient incentive and ARPU for cable companies to build out their infrastructures to capture new customers. But from a consumer perspective, it's far better than the current practice of asking would-be customers to come up with $65,000 per mile (with no equity in return) to build out to their neighborhoods under so-called "self help" provisions of cable franchise agreements.
Tuesday, October 09, 2012
Software solution touted as way to help cable companies ration, monetize bandwidth
Active Broadband Networks Ensures Accuracy of Internet Usage Data in DOCSIS Networks - Yahoo! Finance: FRAMINGHAM, MA--(Marketwire - Oct 9, 2012) - Active Broadband Networks, an innovative supplier of next-generation operation support systems (OSS) for broadband providers, today announced enhancements to its software that improve operator visibility into the integrity of Internet protocol detail record (IPDR) data collected from Cable Modem Termination Systems (CMTSs) in DOCSIS networks. Cable operators rely on IPDR data to compute subscriber Internet usage for usage metering and usage-based pricing as well as a variety of broadband service management applications, so accuracy is a critical requirement as they seek to measure, manage and monetize increasing Internet usage.
When the business model is based on getting more out of existing customers rather than expanding to get new ones, this makes perfect sense. A key component is commoditizing Internet bandwidth so it can be segmented into discrete unit prices. The company issuing the above news release is selling a tool to cable companies to help them do just that.
Saturday, September 29, 2012
Google's Kansas City fiber build doesn't change underlying infrastructure economics
This Kansas City Star article discusses the implications of Google's rollout of fiber to the premise (FTTP) infrastructure in Kansas City.
The newspaper interviewed Josh Olson, a technology industry analyst for Edward Jones & Co. Olson sees the Google fiber deployment as a template to boost user demand for higher bandwidth and speeds. If new applications that can run on this gigabit speed capable infrastructure emerge, it would increase pressure for incumbent cable and telephone companies in other markets to upgrade their networks. However, Olson goes on to dismiss that notion, noting incumbent telcos and cablecos can make money off their existing services. Of course they can when these are the only wireline services available to most U.S. homes and small businesses unless their communities build their own fiber networks operated by local governments or consumer cooperatives.
And as industry analyst Dave Burstein points out, Google's fiber deployment in a single U.S. city cannot change the underlying economics for incumbent providers that must earn a rapid return on investment to keep their shareholders happy -- a business model that directly conflicts with the long term ROI associated with high cost infrastructure projects. Plus telecommunications company shareholders are accustomed to receiving high dividends -- money that can't be directed toward CAPex.
“The problem is it costs a lot of money to climb all those poles and dig all those trenches to make it happen,” Burstein told the Star. “You don’t make money in three years, but you make money in 10 years."
The newspaper interviewed Josh Olson, a technology industry analyst for Edward Jones & Co. Olson sees the Google fiber deployment as a template to boost user demand for higher bandwidth and speeds. If new applications that can run on this gigabit speed capable infrastructure emerge, it would increase pressure for incumbent cable and telephone companies in other markets to upgrade their networks. However, Olson goes on to dismiss that notion, noting incumbent telcos and cablecos can make money off their existing services. Of course they can when these are the only wireline services available to most U.S. homes and small businesses unless their communities build their own fiber networks operated by local governments or consumer cooperatives.
And as industry analyst Dave Burstein points out, Google's fiber deployment in a single U.S. city cannot change the underlying economics for incumbent providers that must earn a rapid return on investment to keep their shareholders happy -- a business model that directly conflicts with the long term ROI associated with high cost infrastructure projects. Plus telecommunications company shareholders are accustomed to receiving high dividends -- money that can't be directed toward CAPex.
“The problem is it costs a lot of money to climb all those poles and dig all those trenches to make it happen,” Burstein told the Star. “You don’t make money in three years, but you make money in 10 years."
Verizon Won’t Expand FiOS Beyond Current Franchise Obligations, CFO Tells Investors | Stop the Cap!
Verizon Won’t Expand FiOS Beyond Current Franchise Obligations, CFO Tells Investors | Stop the Cap!
This development makes it eminently clear that for those communities in Verizon's wireline service area that don't now have its FiOS fiber to the premises service, they will have to build their own community owned infrastructure. Verizon is getting a better ROI on wireless, but wireless can't provide the bandwidth and headroom homes and businesses require.
This development makes it eminently clear that for those communities in Verizon's wireline service area that don't now have its FiOS fiber to the premises service, they will have to build their own community owned infrastructure. Verizon is getting a better ROI on wireless, but wireless can't provide the bandwidth and headroom homes and businesses require.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
AT&T may invest in rural lines rather than divest, CEO says
AT&T may invest in rural lines rather than divest, CEO says: AT&T has said it would consider selling its rural access line unit, but Mr. Stephenson hinted earlier this year that such a sale could prove complex. The difficulty comes from the lines spanning multiple states and therefore needing several regulatory approvals that would likely take significant time.---------------
On Wednesday, he said finding an internal solution for the business would avoid having to go through that process.
There is also a simple business fact at play. Who wants to buy obsolete copper cable plant?
He also noted that AT&T's wireless service could ultimately prove to be a solution for fixed-line broadband connections in less-dense markets as its next-generation LTE network rolls out.---------------
"LTE can become a fixed-line replacement or even better than what you get from fixed line," he said.
If Mr. Stephenson is talking about first generation ADSL, he would be right. But wireless cannot equal or exceed wireline fiber to the premise.
Sunday, September 16, 2012
Public utility district Internet as alternative to Google fiber
Most rural communities lag in the type of broadband Internet service available in urban areas. But northeast of Spokane, in Newport and the surrounding hills and valleys, around 5,000 homes and businesses have the chance to connect soon to a fiber-optic system with lightning-fast speed.
The network being built by the Pend Oreille Public Utility District will allow users to download and upload data all the way up to 1,000 megabits, or 1 gigabit, per second - far faster than the 10 to 20 megabits that is a popular consumer choice today.
It will rival the Google Fiber system rolling out in the Kansas City area and is fast enough to download a movie in seconds, conduct video conferencing at home, and watch multiple high-definition TV programs simultaneously online.
“We believe it’s kind of the footprint for the future of rural communities,” said Joe Onley, manager of the Community Network System for the Pend Oreille PUD
I expect PUDs like this one and consumer cooperatives will take the lead in building out fiber. The key reason is the time to return on investment is too long for private sector players, whether they be AT&T, Verizon, or Google. And that applies in all areas -- not just rural locations.
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