Over the past 15 years, the market dynamics for incumbent
legacy telephone and cable Internet service providers have improved from a risk
standpoint. Early on, there was substantial uncertainty as to how many
customers would subscribe to premise Internet connections. Telcos marketed
advanced “broadband” services as an add on to their voice telephone service as
did cable companies as an adjunct to their pay TV offerings.
They calculated only a fraction of customers would choose to
receive these services -- and pay extra for them. Hence, they deployed the infrastructure
to deliver them to a select set of homes and small businesses -- favoring higher
density and income levels -- to reduce the risk that there would not be
sufficient revenues to cover the cost of deployment and ongoing maintenance.
Some developed formulaic approaches to utilize large numbers
to spread their risk. For example, Comcast adopted a hard rule that it would build
infrastructure only in areas where there were 16 occupied premises per linear
road or street mile. That mitigated risk because it could be reasonably predicted
that with that many premises, enough would take Internet services to help
defray the cost of building out and upgrading the network in order to serve
them.
Now with premise Internet service increasingly regarded as
essential as landline telephone service was before it was succeeded by the
Internet, the risk picture has changed. The likelihood of residential and small
business customers subscribing to the incumbents’ Internet service is significantly
higher, even than it was just five years ago.
One might think given the improved commercial risk picture,
the legacy incumbent telephone and cable companies would be undertaking an
aggressive effort to construct infrastructure to serve nearly all and not
limited “footprints” within their service territories. Not likely. The reason is
the large, shareholder- owned incumbents that dominate in much of the United
States lack business models that allow them to make the significant capital
expenditures that would be required. That would divert dollars that could boost
earnings, pay generous shareholder dividends and fund stock repurchases.
Consequently, the nation continues to need alternative
approaches to ensure all premises have Internet service to meet their current
and future telecommunications needs such as community operated networks or
public-private partnerships that tap into sources of patient investment capital
such as Utah’s
UTOPIA.