Incoming Congress, administration could revamp direction of BEAD from sell to buy side subsidization

Longtime telecom blogger Doug Dawson speculates the $43.45 billion Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) Program funded by Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) of 2021 could see its appropriation reduced to $10 billion under the incoming Congress and Trump administration. Dawson further postulated that reduced allocation could instead of subsidizing fiber to the premise (FTTP) landline delivery infrastructure go toward Starlink LEO satellite service.

If there is a big political movement to undo President Biden’s signature accomplishment [the IIJA], then infrastructure spending of all types could be curtailed, and it’s naïve to think that broadband spending couldn’t get swept into a bigger effort to cut spending. It’s not hard to imagine cutting the program to $10 billion, giving the money to Starlink, and declaring rural broadband to be solved.

https://potsandpansbyccg.com/2024/11/12/the-new-administration-and-bead/

Since LEO-delivered Internet requires far less infrastructure than deploying fiber delivery infrastructure, it calls into question whether subsidies are even needed to deploy it to reach homes and small businesses lacking fiber connections. They recover their costs through relatively high service charges. For example, Starlink runs $120 per month with a one-time hardware cost of $499.

If Dawson’s $10 billion scenario comes to pass, we could see that reduced appropriation converted from sell side to buy side subsidization since households lacking fiber access could find those costs unaffordable, limiting access and impeding BEAD’s programmic goal of promoting universal service.

But LEO service may come with some significant limitations since it requires a clear sky that may not be available at homes and small businesses in heavily wooded areas. "If they try putting BEAD mostly in the LEO basket, lumberjacks will be replacing drilling crews," writes Chris Scharrer of DCS Technology Design. "The idea of Starlink being a cure-all for the nation is literally, not seeing the forest through the trees."

Connecticut's inexplicable archipelago strategy for BEAD subsidies

In breaking up the state into workable regions, the Connecticut broadband office is asking grant applicants to propose bringing fiber to every location. But, Pisacich says, “terrestrial-based providers may not be able to serve those locations without huge costs, so they may not even bid.”

As a result, the office is allowing the islands to be separated into their own region, when needed. That way, one provider can bring fiber to the area aside from the islands, and other providers employing alternative technologies can deliver broadband to the islands.

By using this approach, Pisacich expects to receive “multiple applications, have multiple options, and then we’ll be able to get those harder locations served within the timeframe.”

https://blandinonbroadband.org/2024/10/16/connecticut-has-99-percent-broadband-coverage-but-so-do-many-mn-counties-what-can-we-learn/ 

Assuming locations in the surrounding "sea" are on the electrical grid, what doesn't add up is why the "islands" can't be reached with fiber to the premises (FTTP) particularly with substantial subsidization from the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act's BEAD program intended to reach high cost areas. Are they off the grid? Most likely not. If they can be served by electrical power infrastructure, why can't they be reached with fiber?

First with fiber: Private capital maneuvers for first mover advantage

Some critics, including telecom writer Karl Bode, have characterized Tier 1 players’ sudden embrace of public-private partnerships, including those based upon an open access approach, as a strategic move to capture federal subsidies before smaller players can. In comments on Broadband Breakfast’s website, Bode said that this shift was less about promoting competition and more about securing government funding while maintaining market dominance.

“Now that there's billions of dollars of potential subsidies there for them to glom onto, they want to get a hold of this cash before a municipality, cooperative, or city-owned utility does,” Bode said. “I find the flip funny given their historical, often virulent lobbying opposition to both open access policies, open access networks, and open competition – especially municipal or cooperatives – more generally.”

https://broadbandbreakfast.com/exclusive-series-at-t-t-mobile-bet-big-on-open-access/?ref=alerts-newsletter

Bode's analysis goes to the fundamental tension between investor owned advanced telecom infrastructure and the socialization that tends to occur when the availability of private investment capital is insufficient relative to market demand for advanced telecom services. Private investment capital however realizes the long term value is in owning the fiber connection to homes and other premises as well as first mover advantage that accrues to whomever first installs it.

That's what's attracting private equity as in the case of AT&T's Gigapower joint venture with BlackRock, mentioned in this article. That infuses private capital to finance those fiber connections that AT&T couldn't otherwise without displeasing its current and future investors. AT&T gets help with the sizeable capital expenditures needed and BlackRock retains the option to sell out its stake in the future to AT&T or other network assets consolidator. 

Private capital also wants to foreclose public and consumer utility cooperative ownership since it too would benefit from first mover advantage and disadvantage private investment over the long term.