Consortium to bring fiber to every American doorstep

EMBARGOED UNTIL 4/1/2024

A consortium of fiber network and edge providers has announced a massive deal to rapidly build fiber to every American doorstep and acquire all existing fiber transmission and distribution infrastructure in the United States.

According to informed sources, the deal is being led by fiber infrastructure owners AT&T, Verizon, and Alphabet along with edge providers Meta and Amazon along with limited participation from Netflix.

Cable companies, publicly owned and coop networks and smaller fiber network owner/operators will be offered buy outs of their existing footprints on highly favorable but time limited acquisition terms, according to sources close to the negotiations leading up to the deal.

The consortium will finance fiber construction and operations with cash contributions and long term bonds backed by the consortium members along with participation private equity firms. State and local governments and railroads will be offered fiber connectivity at no cost in exchange for right of way access and waiver of all permitting.

To alleviate potential federal anti-trust concerns, the consortium will be organized into five independent regional companies closely aligned with the service territories of the Regional Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs) formed after the 1982 breakup of AT&T.

“In 2005, then AT&T CEO Ed Whitacre said no one should ride the pipes for free. He’s right. That’s why we’re buying all the pipes and will bring long overdue fiber connections to most every American doorstep,” the consortium said in a statement. “Doing so is consistent with the public policy intent of 1996 Telecommunications Act to timely bring advanced telecommunications capability to all Americans.”

The consortium – called Fiber Everywhere -- noted that policy goal remains unrealized nearly three decades later. “We recognize the difficult incremental trajectory the nation has been on for the last two decades that is unlikely to attain this goal anytime soon and bring American households from 20th century copper and coax built for analog voice telephone and cable TV services to fiber for 21st century Internet protocol-based advanced telecommunications.” 

Fiber Everywhere will request Congress reallocate $42.5 billion appropriated in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 for advanced telecommunications infrastructure directly to the consortium regional operating companies to replace deteriorated utility pole infrastructure and install underground conduit.

The consortium said the deal obviates the need for an alphabet soup of dozens of federal and state subsidy programs and will bring an end to unproductive and fractious fighting over what constitutes “broadband” and where it’s available as plotted federal and state “broadband maps.”

“Maps are meant to serve as a road map to a destination,” Fiber Everywhere stated. “With this deal, the consortium offers the United States a true road map to a bright digital future.”

DISCLAIMER: The foregoing is occurring in a parallel universe under the multiverse concept of theoretical physics. Universal fiber service not available in all areas in the current universe.

Yesterday, today and tomorrow in FTTP

 2000-2020

• Incumbents slow walk, cherry pick FTTP buildout; business models cannot accommodate capex need.
• Publicly owned FTTP emerges as lower cost business model alternative, built by some municipalities in densely settled areas and handful of private operators and utility coops in rural areas.
• Some limited interest by private infrastructure funds (Macquarie) and Euro pension funds as sources of more patient capital to finance FTTP construction.

2020-2030

• COVID public health measures spotlight need for more FTTP as knowledge work, education, medicine and retail increasingly virtualize online. Investment community realizes incumbents unable to meet demand and seriously explore investment opportunities.
• Increased interest on part of private infrastructure funds (e.g. BlackRock joint venture with AT&T), private equity firms and Euro infrastructure funds in investing in privately held FTTP. They provide more patient and copious capital with 8-10 year time horizon than incumbent capex with ROI standard of 5-7 years. High existing debt loads also severely limit in house debt financing. These alternative investment sources have stronger motivation to invest vs. incumbents with risk premium payday opportunity at end of 8-10 year investment cycle when consolidator buys their stakes.
• Interest in public bond debt financing also growing with publicly owned regional FTTP players looking for bond capital to finance growth (i.e. UTOPIA, ECFiber and other Vermont CUDs, Golden State Connect Authority.)
• Both private and public investment will be limited to urban and suburban areas with some limited investment in exurban greenfields and PUDs. But more capital available for private investment, drawn by shorter investment cycle (10 vs. 20+ year public bond maturity).
• BEAD will facilitate some rural FTTP but will be largely limited to incremental edge outs by large telcos and cable companies.
• With limited FTTP investment in rural areas, LEOs will assume dominant position. WISPs will struggle to survive over next 8-10 years, unable to compete with LEOs.

Core issue before FCC's proposed Title II rules: regulating advanced telecom as a common carrier utility

Conventional economic theory distinguishes a public utility from a supplier of goods and services in a market by identifying whether the good in question is a monopoly. In many parts of urban and rural California, internet services are indeed a monopoly—or at best a duopoly.

The common policy response to the monopoly is to either place the service provider into public hands or use a regulatory framework to curtail the ability of the provider to exploit a monopoly position. Once in the public hands, the service provider can be compelled to prioritize social outcomes, such as equity of access, affordability, or similar—exactly from which our California communities stand to benefit since many currently lack equitable access to affordable, reliable broadband internet.

https://20mm.org/2024/03/19/over-100-years-after-electrification-will-california-lead-way-internet-as-a-public-utility/

While the context here is California, this is the core issue before the U.S. Federal Communications Commission with its proposed Safeguarding and Securing the Open Internet rulemaking that would reclassify IP telecom as a common carrier utility under Title II of the Communications Act.

It's controversial because some policymakers paradoxically regard this service as a competitive market of price tiered "broadband" bandwidth, in diametrical opposition to the public utility framework described above that does not. Hence, their rationale is the interests of market makers and those who invest in it should take priority over the broader public interest. It's a black and white debate that over the past three decades has favored the former over the latter, making the investors winners and the public losers. 

The fundamental challenge for public policymakers is to alter this win/lose dynamic and develop a scheme where all interests can win. It's politically possible given access to advanced telecommunications is a nonpartisan issue widely seen as broadly beneficial for all aspects of society.