Friday, March 12, 2010

Virgin trials aerial FTTP in UK countryside

Conventional wisdom holds that fiber to the premises telecom plant isn't cost feasible in less populated regions because it requires costly trenching and won't generate sufficient revenues. Some U.S. telecom experts including Tim Nulty have challenged that notion. Now Virgin Media is going to attempt to prove the conventional wisdom wrong with a FTTP aerial deployment in the rural UK village of Woolhampton, according to this TechWorld item.

If Virgin can show aerial fiber to the premise is doable even within a for-profit business context, it could spur both for profit and nonprofit aerial fiber build outs in the U.S. and elsewhere.

Saturday, March 06, 2010

Alternative telecom business models urgently needed

Fundamentally, America's outmoded and incomplete telecommunications infrastructure isn't solely an infrastructure issue. Rather, it's a business model challenge caused by market failure that discourages the build out of this vital infrastructure to allow all homes and businesses access to the Internet protocol based telecommunications technology that is today's standard for Internet access, video and voice communications. 

As such, the market failure that has brought about the current travesty of the world's most advanced economy dotted with broadband black holes demands alternative business models to fill in the gaps. It also requires a paradigm shift in thinking away from the proprietary, investor owned telco and cable infrastructure that's based on a business model suited to the 20th century and not the 21st. Bob Frankston and Andrew Cohill of Design Nine note the 20th Century telecommunications business model provides services similar to other utilities such as water and electricity. The more you use, the more you pay. As Cohill puts it, it's about selling "bandwidth by the bucket." 

As Internet era dawned with dial up access in the early 1990s, telcos simply sold and billed Internet access like an additional voice calling feature. They have continued to do so with DSL and ISDN before it. In Cohill's view, this business model to use a military acronym is FUBAR. "This business model is fundamentally broken," Cohill declared in a recently issued white paper. "There is no way to fix it." Why? Because building advanced telecommunications infrastructure cannot pencil out for telcos and cable companies based on a business model of selling an incremental, usage-based menu of services over their proprietary cable plant. It simply doesn't generate enough revenue to be profitable. That's why they have adopted an ultra conservative posture when it comes to expanding their infrastructures, leaving millions of would be customers in their so-called "service areas" unable to access services they could otherwise sell to them. So conservative, in fact, that telcos and cable companies will parse a single road or street providing some residents and businesses with broadband access while their neighbors go without, making lack of broadband access a problem that occurs in non-rural as well as rural areas. 

As previously noted on this blog, the search term that brings the largest volume of visits is "my neighbor can get broadband but I can't." As U.S. policymakers are about to consider a framework for a national broadband plan to be issued this month by the Federal Communications Commission, Cohill has proposed an alternative business model that probably won't be in the FCC's plan but deserves to be. It calls for a public private partnership between regional and local governments and private sector Internet Service providers (ISPs). Local governments sell bonds to finance the construction of fiber optic-based infrastructure and then service the bond debt by selling access to ISPs. Federal and state government can help defray construction costs with grants and loans. Telecommunications infrastructure under Cohill's "Third Way" isn't owned by a telco or cable company but instead is public infrastructure like roads and highways.

In effect, Cohill and others who support this alternative business model propose the deprivatization of telecommunications infrastructure while retaining a private market of competitors who wish to sell various communication and entertainment services. It's called an "open access" network. Cohill"s "Third Way" provides a solution to those who believe more competition is needed for telecommunications services. Since telecommunications infrastructure is itself a natural monopoly due to the high cost of constructing it, an open access network puts in place the framework for a competitive market for telecommunications services sold to homes and businesses. Cohill argues that the United States can no longer wait for telcos and cable companies to build out their infrastructures -- and he's right. Moreover, he asserts, in a weak economy where business and job creation are desperately needed, retaining a failed business model of telco and cable owned infrastructure in areas that lack adequate broadband access is "disastrous" from an economic development perspective. 

Critics will likely argue that the open access model is too radical and hasn't been sufficiently tested in the real world to ensure it pencils out where a proprietary, investor owned closed network cannot. Cohill would point to three open access networks his company orchestrated in Virginia and Florida to show that it can. Given studies linking expanded broadband access with economic growth, the open access business model, regional and local governments should not look to solely the feds for solutions. Since they stand to benefit from increased per capita incomes (and by extension, higher tax revenues), they should take their telecommunications -- and their economic destinies -- into their own hands and explore this much needed alternative business model to the dysfunctional, failed market of the status quo. The current privately-owned telecommunications "ecosystem" as some in the FCC have termed it isn't sustainable and cannot be expected to accommodate the burgeoning growth of digital telecommunications services and the concomitant demand for bandwidth. New business models such as proposed by Cohill and others are urgently needed now.

Friday, March 05, 2010

Reports of broadband stimulus awards warrant closer reading

There have been a number of stories lately reporting on awards of U.S. broadband infrastructure subsidies under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. They warrant reading with a closer eye when it comes to the end users that will actually benefit from the subsidies. For example, this AP story on the award of an $80 million grant for advanced telecommunications infrastructure in Louisiana that reports 100,000 households, 15,000 businesses and 150 institutions such as schools, universities and medical centers will benefit from the award.

The last paragraph is key:

Private Internet service providers will use the cable to bring service to homes and businesses.


More accurately, IF there is sufficient last mile infrastructure over which these ISPs can provide service. Most likely, this award is for middle mile infrastructure that feeds the last mile -- the segment that is most often missing and in greatest need of subsidization. Middle mile infrastructure subsidies have been favored thus far among awards announced by the federal agencies administering the stimulus dollars. But both middle and last mile infrastructure are necessary to create a complete telecommunications infrastructure that will meet the public policy intent contained in the stimulus legislation of making advanced telecommunications services available to all Americans.

Network experts like Andrew Cohill of Design Nine understand this fundamental aspect of networking. Networks that don't adequately connect end users aren't truly networks. Cohill describes the last mile as the "first mile" in recognition of this fact.

Friday, February 19, 2010

Preliminary FCC broadband policy report ducks issue of incomplete telecom infrastructure

For the millions of Americans who live and work in broadband black holes, a preview released this week of a forthcoming Federal Communications Commission policy recommendation to Congress offers practically no hope their situations will improve over the foreseeable.

The FCC's National Broadband Plan: National Purposes Update released Feb. 18 contains 56 pages of bullet points, charts and graphs that cover just about every topic related to broadband except for the nation's most pressing broadband problem: incomplete and inadequate advanced telecommunications infrastructure that's necessary to deliver broadband to all Americans.

The final report is due to Congress by March 17. If the report doesn't address this critical issue in a substantive manner and instead dances all around it as this week's preview suggests, it will be seen as a whitewash of platitudes that will quickly be shelved and forgotten.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Google's fiber foray: Likely goal is to test alternative business model

Google's demonstration of concept fiber to the premises "experiment" announced last week could represent the start of a major transformation of how consumers receive information in an age where information is increasingly delivered via Internet protocol.

The potential transformation: from the telco/cable business model that brings the bulk of Americans Internet access that due to CAPEX constraints cannot reach about 12 percent of U.S households to the advertising-based business model used for decades by mass broadcasters. Investors provide much of the funding needed for costly transmitters and other broadcast equipment. But advertisers provide another deep and ongoing source of cash to invest in the necessary broadcast equipment to reach consumers.

Google's experiment isn't likely about testing fiber to the premises technology. Fiber is a well demonstrated means of getting lots of bits and bytes to the doorstep with plenty of capacity to spare. Rather, I suspect it's to explore an alternative business model to bring Internet protocol-based services to homes that is to a large degree based on the network broadcasting business model.

Notably, Google's announcement comes as the U.S. government struggles with the inherent conflict of implementing policies to expand advanced telecommunications infrastructure to all Americans while paying homage to the privately owned telco/cable dominated Internet "ecosystem" that makes doing so impossible without substantial subsidies in a time of economic penury.

In the 1960's, mass communications theorist Marshall McLuhan predicted an electronic global village linked together by a broadcast television -- a medium so powerful that the medium itself would be as important as its content. "The medium is the message,” he famously declared. While McLuhan's observation was about TV, in retrospect it applies even more so to the Internet. Google's foray into fiber may well have been undertaken with McLuhan firmly in mind.

Friday, February 12, 2010

Google's fiber to the premise "experiment" a would be broadband game changer

Nearly three years ago, I predicted Internet-protocol content providers and aggregators fed up with trying to pump their product over legacy telecommunications infrastructure dominated by telcos and cable companies would acquire or build their own infrastructure to reach consumers. It's an expected outcome of a conflict between the content providers' needs for ever increasing bandwidth and the telco/cable companies' need to conserve capital expenditures and place incremental limits on bandwidth consistent with their service offerings in which consumers pay increasingly higher rates for more bandwidth. The content providers want unlimited bandwidth delivered over big pipes. But the business model of the telco/cable duopoly is based on making bandwidth a restricted scarce commodity delivered over little pipes.

So it was no surprise when Google -- which has reportedly been quietly buying up fiber left dark after the dot com bust of a decade ago -- announced this week it would build an experimental alternative business model that would bring advanced telecommunications to consumers over a really big pipe: fiber optic infrastructure to the premises capable of throughput of 1 gigabyte per second.

Google is also clearly holding itself as an alternative to the Obama administration's program to build out open access broadband infrastructure subsidized by more than $4 billion set aside in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) President Obama signed into law nearly one year ago.

The timing of Google's announcement of its fiber infrastructure test program is also worth noting and shows the company is looking to make a statement. The window for applications for the second round of ARRA broadband infrastructure subsidies opens less than a week after Google's announcement. The deadline set by Google for local governments and communities to nominate themselves for Google's experimental fiber build closes the week after the ARRA funding round application window closes as well the deadline for the Federal Communications Commission to submit a plan to Congress to achieve universal U.S. broadband access as required by the ARRA.

While the federal agencies that will hand out the ARRA infrastructure subsidies have made assurances the money will soon begin flowing in earnest, doubts have emerged due to numerous challenges filed against proposed projects by the same incumbent providers Google wants to go around. Google likely figured amid that uncertainty, the timing was right to make its announcement.

With its self described "experimental" fiber to the premises model, Google may also be trying to debunk skeptics who believe fiber to the premises simply costs too much to deploy. That high cost has been cited as the main impediment standing in the way of investment in the fiber to the premises infrastructure that was to have been at the doorstep of every American home by 2006. If Google can show the cost assumptions upon which the business models of the incumbent legacy providers are based are wrong, then the entire game is changed overnight. That potentially puts America on course to catch up to where it should have been four years ago and where it needs to be for the future.

Public policy collides with business interests of telco/cable duopoly

According to Oakland, Calif.-based consultant Craig Settles, the Obama administration's stated policy goal of broadband access for all Americans is colliding with the narrower economic interest of the legacy telephone and cable companies. That conflict is playing out within the context of the administration's economic stimulus legislation that was signed into law almost one year ago.

Settles points to an estimated 9,000 challenges and protests the incumbents brought against proposed projects seeking more than $4 billion in infrastructure subsidies set aside in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The challenges are being raised under a broadband black hole preservation clause in rules two federal agencies wrote to govern allocation of the subsidies that allows incumbents to protest proposed projects on the grounds they already provide advanced telecommunications services in the area proposed to be served.

The telcos and cable companies want to preserve what they regard as their exclusive franchises for a given "service territory" even though their business models don't allow them to construct the infrastructure necessary to bring advanced telecommunications services to all homes and businesses that need (and try to order) them.

This is the crux of the clash between the business interests of the telco/cable duopoly and public policy that will clearly have to be expeditiously resolved by the Obama administration and Congress if the subsidies are to function as intended. As Settles put it in an article appearing earlier this week in USA Today: "We're at a point where it's the general public's interest vs. the entrenched incumbents."

Sunday, February 07, 2010

A broadband farce in the UK countryside

Here's an appalling story from the British countryside that has some parallels in America where folks stuck on dial up or forced to suck a satellite have been given similar stratospheric broadband price quotes (and no stock or options) from incumbent telcos and cable providers. This story also illustrates the need for the UK to ditch its outmoded, copper cable plant that relies on highly constrained "little broadband" DSL.

Looks like the village of Dufton is a representative outpost deep in the UK "broadband desert" recently lamented by Prince Charles.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Last mile fiber project lands broadband stimulus award, sparks strong interest from other rural electric coops

Telecommunications equipment manufacturer Pulse is reportedly getting deluged with inquiries from rural electric cooperatives after it successfully partnered with a rural electric cooperative in Northeast Missouri to score $19 million in last mile broadband stimulus funding from the USDA's Rural Utilities Service (RUS) Broadband Initiatives Program (BIP).

What's sparking (pun intended) interest in the
Ralls County Electric Cooperative project is its fiber to the premises design that utilizes "distributed tap architecture" for easy deployment of drops that's cost effective at population densities of as few as four homes per mile, reports Light Reading's Cable Digital News.

The take away from this story isn't about the technology alone. It shows there is tremendous interest in the cooperative business model to bring advanced telecommunications services to unserved and underserved areas of the United States just as coops did a century ago when rural electric and other utility cooperatives were first formed.

U-Verse won't bail AT&T out of its residential wireline woes

Here's a notable report by Todd Spangler of Multichannel News on AT&T's revenues from its hybrid fiber/copper VDSL triple play U-Verse service that suggests while posting increases in customers and revenue, they may be too little and too late to offset a dramatic decline in AT&T's residential wireline market segment. In a Dec. 21, 2009 filing with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission, AT&T in unusually blunt language called the downward trend a "death spiral."

Spangler reports that while AT&T's U-verse revenue nearly tripled over 2009 (despite a sharp economic downturn) and is approaching an annualized rate of $3 billion, it nevertheless represents less than five percent of total wireline segment revenue. Spangler notes even that strong growth isn't sufficient to offset flagging wireline segment revenues, which fell six percent in 2009 to $65.7 billion.

Meanwhile, AT&T disclosed this week it would spend $2 billion on its wireless infrastructure -- money that won't be going into wireline CAPEX to build out the U-Verse footprint. Doing that is a costly proposition given U-Verse involves expensive field distribution equipment that can deliver service only 3,000 feet over existing copper cable plant -- plant that often requires even more money to bring it up to technical standards to reliably carry VDSL signals. That's not an issue in new neighborhoods, where U-Verse is delivered over fiber to the premises. But few such locales are being developed with new home construction at its lowest level in decades.

In sum, U-Verse isn't likely going to bail AT&T out of its troubles in residential wireline and may ultimately lead to the big telco pulling out of the market segment to concentrate on wireless in the retail market as I predicted in September 2008.

Friday, January 22, 2010

App-Rising: As U.S. copper telecom infrastructure ages, no national consensus on next step

Check out this dreary assessment of the state of U.S. telecommunications infrastructure from App-Rising:

In particular, look at Kentucky. They showed a 40% decrease in measured connection speeds just in the last quarter. Numbers like this have me worried that perhaps the century-old copper telephone wire is rapidly deteriorating and impacting DSL performance, or perhaps the cable providers' shared networks are overwhelmed with demand, or maybe wireless broadband is constrained by insufficient backhaul.

What makes Kentucky even more troubling is that they're supposed to be a leader in encouraging the deployment and adoption of broadband. What does that say about the health of the country if a state that's been seen as a leader is falling off this badly.

It makes me start to wonder if we might have a national emergency on our hands in states like Kentucky and others where broadband speeds are dropping. It leads me to think that perhaps we need a national commission to study these issues in depth and get to the bottom of what's happening as no state should be slowing down ten years into the 21st century.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

California PUC approves $7.9 million supplemental broadband stimulus funding for 9,000 square mile Central Valley wireless project

The California Public Utilities Commission today conditionally approved a resolution providing $7.9 million in supplemental funding for a major wireless broadband project requesting federal funding via broadband infrastructure subsidies allocated in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The supplemental funding allocated from California PUCs' California Advanced Services Fund covers half of a 20 percent recipient match required under the National Telecommunications and Information Administration's (NTIA) Broadband Technology Opportunities Program and is contingent on federal funding approval.

The California Valley Broadband (CVB) project, proposed by a the consortium of Moreno Trenching Ltd, Mika Telecom Group and MT2 Telecom, LP, plans to build wireless infrastructure that will serve about 77,195 households in Fresno, Madera, Merced, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Solano, and Stanislaus counties. The consortium claims it will deliver Internet connectivity and VoIP over nearly 9,000 square miles at speeds of up to 20 Mbs on the download side and up to 6 Mbs uploads using two unregulated (WiFi) frequencies and one licensed (WiMAX) frequency "to accommodate range, terrain, tree and other interference issues."

The CVB project faced multiple challenges from incumbent telco and cable companies who claimed they already serve census block groups in the proposed CVB footprint. But PUC staff rejected the bulk of the challenged census block groups finding the incumbents didn't offer broadband as the California PUC defines it: at least 3 Mbs for downloads and 1 Mbs on the upload side.

It remains to be seen however how the NTIA will respond to protests the incumbents lodged against CVB's proposed project that is pending approval for the 80 percent BTOP subsidy.

In allowing incumbents to contest proposed broadband infrastructure projects in the first round of stimulus funding that closed last summer, both the NTIA and the Rural Utilities Services of the U.S. Department of Agriculture -- which is also distributing a portion of the broadband stimulus funds -- set the stage for an adversarial process that by implication would require the agencies to adjudicate contested applications. However, it's likely they are less able than the California PUC to carry out that function since the PUC can reference the state's broadband availability maps and has dedicated staff evaluating comparatively far fewer proposed projects.

Since putting in place a process to resolve applications contested by the incumbents and make findings of fact regarding whether the area of a proposed infrastructure project is underserved or unserved requires substantial time and resources, my guess is the two federal agencies simply put contested applications into a "hold" file while trying to figure out how to square the applications with incumbent telco/cable objections. That would explain why so many now impatient applicants haven't heard anything whatsoever after rushing to get their applications in by the first round funding deadline in mid-August of 2009 after having been initially led to believe they'd know by the year end holidays at the latest whether their projects were approved for funding.

This sets the stage for political blow back from federal and state representatives in areas where broadband stimulus projects in their districts are stuck in limbo after hearing from frustrated constituents asking them to expedite approval of their applications. The incumbents couldn't stop the broadband stimulus provisions from becoming law in the rush to enact ARRA one year ago. So they may instead opted to fend off threats to their territorial hegemony (remember, an incumbent telco/cable "service territory" doesn't mean everyone is served) in a "death by a thousand cuts" strategy to vector and shoot down stimulus applications one by one.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Yet another flawed analysis of forthcoming U.S. broadband plan

Here's another in an ongoing series of flawed analyses in the mainstream media lately on the U.S. Federal Communications Commission's statutorily mandated task to develop a plan to ensure build out of advanced telecommunications infrastructure accessible to all Americans.

The problem with them is they incorrectly conflate lack of competition with market failure to suggest why this infrastructure isn't fully built out. It's the latter and not the former that's the cause. There isn't robust competition in a failed market because the business economics and externalities keep vendors out, leading to the formation of broadband black holes. The lack of competition is the symptom, not the underlying disease. Why is it that no one seems to get this simple, basic reality in the current coverage of the FCC's forthcoming broadband plan?

Second and final broadband stimulus funding rules issued

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Rural Utilities Service (RUS) and the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) today issued guidelines for the second and last funding round to disburse $7.2 billion allocated for broadband infrastructure and adoption in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009.

Here's a news release on the Notice of Funds Availability (NOFA) as well as links to the NOFAs for the NTIA's Broadband Technology Opportunities Program (BTOP) and the USDA/RUS Broadband Initiatives Program (BIP).

Given the delays in awarding funds from the first broadband stimulus round that closed last August, I expected this NOFA might not appear until mid-March at the earliest. Particularly given the NTIA and USDA solicited comments late last year on the funding requirements that elicited plenty of complaints and suggestions to digest.

I suspect the delays in making first round broadband infrastructure awards -- in large part likely due to numerous incumbent challenges -- prompted the NTIA and USDA accelerate the timetable in order to meet the ARRA requirement the broadband stimulus funds be fully disbursed by Sept. 30 of this year.

Unlike the first round, the latest NOFA calls for separate applications to each agency, with the NTIA concentrating on middle mile telecommunications infrastructure. I suspect by putting last mile far down on the list of funding priorities, the NTIA is hoping to cut down on the number of incumbent challenges tying up infrastructure awards in non-rural areas.

The RUS/BIP NOFA covers both middle mile and last mile infrastructure with an emphasis on the latter in unserved rural areas. Any area in which at least 50 percent of premises lack access to broadband of 5 Mbps combined for upstream and downstream throughput and is at least 75 percent rural combined is eligible under the BIP guidelines.

If a proposed BIP project area includes premises with no access to wireline -- or fixed or mobile wireless service -- offering throughput at the now obsolete Federal Communications Commission definition of broadband of at least 768 Kbs down 200 Kbs up, it is deemed "unserved" under BIP.

Unfortunately, the BIP squanders precious funds with a new separate category to underwrite discounted satellite Internet service, which in the view of this blogger is contrary to the ARRA's intent to fund advanced telecommunications infrastructure and not stopgap, substandard substitutes such as satellite.

Unlike in the first funding round, applicants no longer need define their projects based on contiguous census blocks. BTOP applicants must now use census block groups or tracts. BIP applicants can define their proposed service area boundaries as they wish using an mapping tool included in the online funding application.

Like the first round, the window for applications opens on short notice and remains open only briefly: from Feb. 16 to March 15. That means applicants will once again have to scramble which could like the first round in 2009 produce hastily developed and inferior quality applications.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

Broadband expansion positively correlates with local economic growth, study finds

The Public Policy Institute of California has issued a new study finding a positive relationship between broadband expansion and economic growth, particularly among information-based industries and in areas with lower population densities.

The study is based on a comparison of Federal Communications Commission data on the number of broadband providers by ZIP code and employment data for the period 1999 to 2006.

Study author Jed Kolko however qualifies the findings given the shortcomings of the FCC data that overstate broadband availability and define broadband at throughput speeds most observers today consider outdated.

Kolko also cautions that the availability of broadband is a relatively recent phenom making it difficult to reach firm conclusions on its impact on economic activity. (Not to mention that data from the years 2007-09 were not included in the study)

In addition, the PPIC report notes increased deployment of fiber to the home infrastructure could lead to different findings. If combined with low cost videoconferencing equipment, fiber could also boost telecommuting -- for which Kolko found no demonstrable increase with the most widely available premises technologies during the study period, i.e. DSL and cable.

Friday, January 08, 2010

FCC chief: Formulating U.S. broadband deployment policy "really hard"

Federal Communications Commission Chairman Julius Genachowski offered some perspective this week on why the FCC has asked Congress for another month to complete its policy recommendations on expanding advanced telecommunications infrastructure to all Americans.

"I can't tell you that we've figured out the solution completely and I can't tell you that we'll figure out the solution to this perfectly by the time we do the National Broadband Plan," he told GigaOM, according to this Reuters dispatch. "This is really hard."

Indeed it is, because this isn't about simply tweaking the existing, incomplete infrastructure -- or "ecosystem" as some federal officials have termed it -- that leaves lots of Americans reliant on the outdated copper-based infrastructure put in place decades ago to deliver plain old telephone service (POTS).

As AT&T noted in a recent FCC filing, that system is on the verge of obsolescence. The United States now needs a new infrastructure for a new Internet-protocol based range of telecom services that go far beyond standard voice service. Genachowski has described it as "the critical infrastructure challenge of our generation."

Getting there won't be a natural extension of the old infrastructure but instead a radical overhaul calling for new business models, particularly among the last and middle mile segments.
It's as much of a business model challenge as an infrastructure challenge. That scope forces the FCC to engage in original, outside the box thinking -- which as Genachowski aptly noted is hard -- but necessary -- work.

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

NTIA director downplays enhanced infrastructure competition, wireless as U.S. universal broadband access strategy

Here are National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) Director Lawrence E. Strickling's comments to the U.S. Federal Communications Commission on the FCC's incubating policy recommendation due to Congress next month on how to best achieve broadband access for all Americans.

The notable points of Strickling's letter: neither competitive market forces nor emerging wireless technologies will necessarily get us there. While not stating so directly, Strickling implicitly acknowledges that wireline telecommunications infrastructure like electric power and water distribution is a natural monopoly due to the high cost of building it. Hence, more competition isn't going to be the answer, Strickling suggests, noting however there should be more competition among broadband Internet access services sold over that infrastructure. That means open access networks, although Strickling didn't use that term explicitly in his letter to the FCC.

As for wireless, Strickling writes, it remains unclear that it could provide a viable "third pipe" to deliver advanced telecommunications (IP-based) services to residences and small businesses. Strickling's doubts are well founded. Tim Nulty, who believes fiber to the premises can pencil out even in rural areas, explains why with an aeronautical metaphor. While wireless may offer mobility, he says, a fiber-optic network connected directly to homes boasts nearly unlimited capacity. "Think about 747s and helicopters,” Nulty told The Progressive magazine. “Helicopters are marvelous when they’re used for what they’re good at. But you don’t use them to fly thousands of people between Boston and Chicago. For that you need 747s.”

Nulty made that observation in August 2008 and it's even more relevant today as bandwidth demand has mushroomed with the proliferation of IP-based video content. It would be a mistake for policymakers to punt on wireline, betting on the come that commercial wireless providers will fill in broadband black holes given the many technological, backhaul, terrain and business model challenges they face. In some areas, they have. But it's only a temporary bridge on the road toward fiber to the premises.