Universal broadband could "change face of Britian as we know it"

Universally available high speed Internet connectivity would redistribute Britian's population and alter its economy, according to a study reported today by Sky News.

The report also revealed that UK businesses could save up to £31.7bn, if more people were able to work from home.Robert Ainger, Orange's director of corporate business said: "The long-entrenched domination of the South East in Britain's economic structure could at last be coming to a close, with many workers wanting to trade their city lives to work from more rural and idyllic parts of the country."Our report reveals that a digitally connected country could change the face of Britain as we know it."

The findings could have even larger implications for the United States as advanced telecommunications infrastructure is more widely built out.

Socio-economist Jack Lessinger predicted in his 1991 book Penturbia: Where Real Estate Will Boom After the Crash of Suburbia that Americans would emigrate from large metro area suburbs for smaller towns outside of metro areas. Around the same time, early proponents of telecommuting or telework -- your blogger among them -- began to see how telecommunications could fuel the trend that same way freeways fed the surburban boom immediately following World War II.

Migration of boomers to Penturbia will boost small town broadband

The Daily Yonder has an interesting item in today's issue that lends credence to Jack Lessinger's prediction two decades ago that America is poised to enter its fifth major settlement pattern. This fifth era -- dubbed Penturbia by Lessinger in the title of his 1990 book on the topic -- will be marked by a shift away from metro areas and suburbs to less populated smaller towns outside of metro areas.

The Daily Yonder story cites a U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service forecast that the baby boomers -- a hugely populous demographic group -- will shun the burbs in favor of Lessinger's Penturbs. A big draw will be natural amenities, which a map accompanying the article shows are primarily in the western U.S.

This is also where the nation's telecommunications infrastructure is least likely to offer broadband and other advanced telecommunications services, services the boomers are likely to expect and demand but telcos and cable companies have found difficult to profitably provide there. An influx of boomers could change those economics. And where the providers won't upgrade or expand their infrastructures, look for the boomers to form telecom cooperatives and do the job themselves.

How to acheive a true digital economy

The Associated Press has issued a weekend thumb sucker largely based on Richard Florida's piece in the March issue of Atlantic Monthly titled How the Crash Will Reshape America.

Summed up, the AP article posits America has undergone a boom and bust cycle in the Sunbelt, creating "an obsolescent model of economic life" based on cheap real estate that encouraged low-density sprawl and created a work force 'stuck in place' and tied to homes cannot be profitably sold.

This is in large part because the Sunbelt migration boom of the 1980s and 1990s has ended and Americans are moving far less frequently than in the past. That's hardly surprising given the mega demographic group of the Baby Boomers is aging and less inclined to move every 6 to 8 years.

To replace this obsolete economic model, the AP article quotes Florida as proposing a "digital age" alternative in which jobs will cluster in what some have called super metro regions such as the Boston-New York-Washington and Los Angeles-Orange-San Diego corridors. Florida argues that these areas will concentrate highly educated professionals and creative thinkers who can drive future economic growth.

I appreciate Florida's view that these creative processes flourish best when these creative types interact and collaborate. But Florida's digital age sounds more to me like a throwback to the industrial age that saw people migrate from the countryside and concentrate in cities that in turn became today's metro areas.

In a true digital economy, population and information-based work would be more evenly distributed, mitigating the need for people to concentrate in congested, high cost metro areas. Moreover, socio-economist Jack Lessinger predicted in his 1990 book Penturbia that Americans will opt out of these areas in search of slower paced, less crowded and improved quality of life in less populated regions of the nation. And true community instead of the shallow, enforced faux community of privately governed homeowner associations that have proliferated in the Sunbelt states over the past two decades. I believe Lessinger will ultimately be proven prescient.

To achieve a true digitally-based (and incidentally, less petroleum-based) economy, the United States must ensure the near universal deployment of fiber optic telecommunications infrastructure capable of supporting symmetric, business class Internet-protocol-based applications including video conferencing. This is the best way to avoid future real estate bust and boom cycles of the kind Florida describes. As some have simply put it, move bytes, not bodies.